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Impact on stocks
In early May 2017, ICAC sources revealed that the sales of Chinese stocks amounted to 404 thousand tons in April 2017, slight-
ly lower volume compared to the total negotiated in March 2017, a total of 466 thousand tons. At the close of the 2016/17 season,
it is estimated that China’s total stocks will fall 17%, to 9.3 million tons.
The global ending stocks in the 2016/17 crop year are supposed to recede 7%, to 17.4 million tons. A further drop, of 5%, is
forecast for the 2017/18 season, when they should remain at 16.4 million tons. China, where the new season starts with 52% of
the global stocks, for the first time that country will have less than half of the reserves by the end of the 2017/18 season, when
the share of this country should amount to 47% of the global stocks.
T
he global cotton trade should
confirm a growth of 5%, to 7.95
million tons, at the end of the
2016/17 crop year. This is good
news, after registering declines
in the three previous seasons. The projec-
tion by the International Cotton Advisory
Committee (ICAC) is that throughout the
2017/18 commercial year the increase will
remain at 1.8%, in a total of 8.09 million
tons in the volume of fiber.
In the 2016/17 growing season, ICAC’s
estimatepoints toa recovery,mainlybased
on the demand from relevant global con-
sumers of fiber. Imports by Bangladesh, for
example, should increase by 3%, to 1.4mil-
lion tons, thanks to incentive mechanisms
and international competition created by
the country.
In the meantime, imports by Vietnam
should go up by 16%, to 1.2 million tons. At
the same time, China’s international pur-
chases, now ranking as third biggest cotton
importer in the world, will soar 3%, to 987
thousand tons (and should outstrip 1 mil-
lion tons in the 2017/18 season).
The United States is the country that
benefits the most from this situation, and
its global shipments should soar 53%, to
3 million tons, representing 38% of to-
tal global exports in the 2016/17 season.
On the other hand, Indian exports will de-
crease by 30%, to 886 thousand tons.
The international cotton trade reacts
andresumesitsgrowthaftersuccessivedeclinesoverthe
pastyears.Andthetrendisforittogrowevenfurther
Cotton
connects
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