time was registered by the indicator of the
Center for Applied Studies on Advanced Eco-
nomics (Cepea) of the Luiz de Queiroz Col-
lege of Agriculture (Esalq) a division of the
University of São Paulo (USP): 275.08 cents
ontherealperpound(orR$2.7508),thehigh-
est nominal valueof the series since2013.
Élcio Bento, analyst with Safras & Merca-
do, views this change in connection with an
adjustment to the standards of the interna-
tional market. Since 2014, China, which had
beenartificially inflating theprice in the inter-
national trade, decided to adhere to a stock
reduction policy, which still represents near-
ly 52% of the cotton available in the world.
Thereliestheblamefortherecedingpricesin
thepastcropyears,fromarecordhighofUS$
1.50 per pound to only US$ 0.60 in the global
market. The fierce competition fromsynthet-
ic fabricswas alsoa factor in this scenario.
It was a discouraging factor, as far as cot-
ton plantings go, but the crop failures over
the past growing seasons (where the blame
goes to bad weather conditions) had a pos-
itive effect on domestic prices, a fact that
marked the resumption of themarket. In the
international scenario, prices soared gradu-
ally, reaching nearly US$ 0.90 per pound, in
May, a situation that is likely not to last. Pric-
es shall remain closer toUS$ 0.80”, Bentoun-
derstands. According to him, if China is to re-
duceitsstockbyupto47%(markingthethird
drop in global availability of cotton), we can-
not overlook the fact that there is every indi-
cation that the United States, relevant global
supplier,willharvestanabundantcrop,start-
ing inAugust, coming from21-percent bigger
areas. “Brazil and other relevant producers
will alsoharvest abundant crops”, hewarns.
Estabelecidos no Oeste da Bahia, uma das
melhores regiões de produção de pluma
no mundo, somos uma corretora de
commodity de algodão que há
13 anos oferece ao mercado
qualidade absoluta.
Rua Primeiro de Maio, 110
Jd. Paraíso – Luís Eduardo Magalhães-BA
Fone: 55 77
3628-1017
Fax: 55 77
3628-3659
Based in Western Bahia, one of the best
cotton growing regions in the world, we
are a cotton commodity broker and,
for 13 years now, have supplied the
market with absolute quality.
branca pluma
white fiber
Quadro de oferta e demanda nacional - (emmil t)
Fonte:
Conab, abril de 2017.
Safra
Estoque inicial Produção Importação Suprimento Consumo Exportação Estoque final
2010/11
76,0
1.959,8
144,2
2.180,0
900,0
758,3
521,7
2011/12
521,7
1.893,3
3,5
2.418,5
895,2
1.052,8
470,5
2012/13
470,5
1.310,3
17,4
1.798,2
920,2
572,9
305,1
2013/14
305,1
1.734,0
31,5
2.070,6
883,5
748,6
438,5
2014/15
438,5
1.562,8
2,1
2.003,4
820,0
834,3
349,1
2015/16
349,1
1.289,2
27,0
1.665,3
660,0
804,0
201,3
2016/17
201,3
1.473,2
55,0
1.729,5
700,0
630,0
399,5
