cio Bento. During the same period, equally
worried, the farmers had not negotiated in
advance the crop they were going to plant
in the final months of the year. “Nonethe-
less, now nearly 28% of the 2017/18 crop
has been negotiated in advance, thanks to
expectations of favorable weather condi-
tions and a more stable international mar-
ket”, the analyst recognizes.
Still according to an analysis by Bento,
the more the farmers manage to hedge the
prices above the production cost, the big-
ger the chances for opportunity sales with
the remaining stock high during the fallow
period. “What is not recommended is a to-
tal dependence on these price peaks in the
international scenario. It would be an un-
necessary risk”, he warns. He has it that, if
average national and international prices
lend their necessary support, the crop to
be planted at the end of the year will be big-
ger in area. “If the lower stocks hold, along
with significant advances in demand result-
ing from higher domestic and internation-
al consumption, a more promising scenario
could unfold”, Bento argues.
VALORIZADO
highly valued
Evolução dos preços do algodão (médias mensais, deflacionado),
em centavos de real por libra peso – A prazo (8 dias)
$ menor média no ano
$ maior média no ano
Nota:
preços de algodão pluma, tipo 41-4, posto na mesorregião da cidade de São Paulo.
O prazo médio de pagamento se refere à média de dias para pagamento dos negócios com
prazos, considerados para o cálculo. Todos os valores que atendem aos critérios estatísticos
foram convertidos para pagamento em 8 dias com base na taxa de desconto NPR.
Fonte:
Cepea/Esalq/Usp – maio de 2017.
Mês/Ano
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Janeiro
$224,03 $269,65 $195,85 $255,45
$272,71
Fevereiro
$235,68 $273,09 $196,00 $266,83
$269,70
Março
$261,07 $261,11 $218,72 $252,52
$271,66
Abril
$266,97 $246,15 $245,97 $261,76
$275,08
Maio
$250,36 $230,98 $236,67 $273,20
—
Junho
$244,25 $228,37 $234,42 $268,24
—
Julho
$266,66 $218,31 $236,16 $260,58
—
Agosto
$271,17 $202,01 $244,66 $256,84
—
Setembro
$263,11 $202,28 $254,39 $249,45
—
Outubro
$262,98 $197,26 $253,16 $251,17
—
Novembro
$255,75 $194,59 $243,92 $254,82
—
Dezembro
$258,53 $194,36 $237,56 $268,95
—
