Inor Ag. Assmann
Thekernelof theAmericaspreservesthevigorand
growthinproductionofallmajorsuppliers,andthe
sameholdstrueforglobal consumption
America,
thelandofsoybean
More than 83% of the soybeans pro-
duced in the world come from the Amer-
icas: the United States, in North America,
which ranks as largest producer, is fol-
lowed by Brazil and Argentina, in South
America. Brazil has once almost sur-
passed the United States in production,
in the 2012/13 growing season, by vir-
tue of the climate problems that affect-
ed the leading producer, but the Country
climbed to the position as largest export-
er and is holding firmly to it, according to
projections by the US Department of Ag-
riculture (USDA) for the 2016/17 period.
Likewise, these projections point to big-
ger crops and soaring consumption of the
kernels at global level.
After a decrease in production in the
2015/16 growing season, compared to the
previous year, the new season is supposed
to reinforce the supply of the crop at glob-
al level, soaring about 5.6%. At least, this is
what USDA sources are projecting in their
September 2016 report, even expanding
the expectations of the crop size in the Unit-
ed States, by a growth of nearly 7%. With
regard to Brazil, the projection is for a crop
4.7% bigger, while Argentina is supposed to
experience minimum growth levels. On the
other hand, what captures attention is the
7.8% bigger crop of the biggest importer,
China, which, alone, accounts for 63% of all
soybean purchases in theworld.
Even so, Chinese imports are expected
to soar about 4.2%during the period, judg-
ing from the prognosis by the USDA. The
evolution of global consumption is equal-
ly supposed to remain at close to 4% dur-
ing this period, reaching 328.7million tons,
where China is also the leader (followed by
the United States, Argentina and Brazil),
just like what happens in the grain crush-
ing process. The second largest soybean
importing region, the European Union,
should slightly reduce its commercial op-
erations. However, in the global total, the
forecast is for an increase of about 3.7%.
As far as exports go, they are supposed
to go up by 4.1%, keeping Brazil in the lead-
ing position, with sales soaring 3.2%, but
are projected to go up even further in the
second largest exporter, the United States
(5.6%), in light of the bigger crop in that
country. Because of this, the country is sup-
posed to increase its stocks greatly, as they
had fallen in the previous season, a situa-
tion that might interfere with the prices of
the crop. In general, nevertheless, judging
from the estimates by the USDA, the ending
stocks in theworld shouldnot interferewith
the size of the ending stocks in the new sea-
son, maybe a reduction of 1%, after reced-
ingmore in the previous cycle. These stocks
are supposed to remain at 72million tons.
Brazil is the leading soybean exporter, but
theUnited States is the largest producer
34
ASOJAPELOMUNDO
Soy around the world
(Movimentações do grão emmilhões
de toneladas, safra 2015/16)
Fonte:
USDA, 12 de setembro de 2016.
Produção/Maiores produtores
Estados Unidos
106,93
Brasil
96,50
Argentina
56,80
China
11,60
Total mundial
312,97
Exportação/Maiores exportadores
Brasil
56,60
Estados Unidos
51,17
Argentina
10,50
Paraguai
4,80
Total mundial
132,80
Importação/Maiores importadores
China
82,50
União Europeia
13,70
México
3,95
Japão
3,25
Total mundial
130,86
