Earlier
thanever
Sílvio Ávila
Brazilwillsecure itsposition
asleadingexporter, andshould
progressfurther in2017
An
exceptional
scenario,
which
brought together the Brazilian crop at a
compensating Exchange Rate and off-sea-
son in the United States, generating the
anticipation of international purchases
in 2016, shifting the most relevant ship-
ments to the period from March through
June. “Exports are concentrated in the
first half of the year. This anticipation gave
origin to a record volume shipped from
January to August, a total of 48.2 million
tons”, explains Carlos Cogo, director at
Carlos Cogo Consultancy.
According to him, from January to Au-
gust the bigger foreign sales are up 5.1%
from the performance of the same period
in 2015. Sales peaked in April, with a record
of upwards of 10 million tons in only one
month. China is Brazil’s big client. Accord-
ing to Cogo, this movement indicates that,
considering September, only 5 to 6 million
tons are needed to consolidate the num-
bers projected by the entities of the sec-
tor, like the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Indus-
tries Association (Abiove) and the National
Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec), for
soybean shipments in 2016: from 53 to 54
million tons. “Although the rhythm has
slowed down in August”, he acknowledges.
Besides the combined factors, like the
smaller than expected crop in Brazil, a re-
duction of 8million tons, and the Exchange
Rate favorable to foreign sales, Cogo em-
phasizes that nearly 30% of the soybean
crop had been sold in late 2015. The ana-
lyst understands that a small reduction in
domestic demand was a factor that helped
Brazil supply the international market with
such a huge volume. “Smaller internal con-
sumption balanced the supply side, while
international prices and the Exchange Rate
kept prices attractive”, he says.
Although running the risk of a small de-
cline, less than54%of the kernel sold in the
Brazilianshipmentswereanticipatedthisyear thanks
toascenariothat includednational cropfailure,
exchangerateandoff-seasonintheUnitedStates
international market, compared to the 54.3
million tons negotiated in 2015, Brazil will
secure its position as leading exporter, fol-
lowed by the United States, Argentina and,
by a large margin, by Paraguay. According
to data from the Ministry of Development,
Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), the soy
complex – kernel, meal and oil – up until
August represented 37.12% of all agribusi-
ness exports of Brazil. The segment leads
in revenue and volume Brazilian foreign
sales of the agribusiness sector. The seg-
ment leads in revenue and volume Brazil-
ian foreign sales of the agribusiness sec-
tor. These sales amounted to US$ 22,441,
028,546, outstripping sales of meat, for-
estry products, sugar and alcohol, coffee
and cereals. It is an above average perfor-
mance, which could improve even further
in the next growing season.
38
UMMUNDODESOJA
Aworld of soy
Balança comercial da soja noBrasil
(emtoneladas)
Soja emgrãos
Ano Importação Exportação
2010/11
41,0
32.986,0
2011/12
266,5
32.468,0
2012/13
282,8
42.791,9
2013/14
578,7
45.692,0
2014/15
324,1
54.324,0
2015/16
700,0
54.100,0
Fonte:
Conab, setembro de 2016.
