Mainsoybeanproducingstatesarestickingtotheir
leadingpositionsandinitialperspectivesspotno
changes for thenewgrowingseason
The soybean map in Brazil, which fol-
lows a large stretch from South to North,
with emphasis in the Center-South region,
shows hardly any changes in the two past
decades, and the same could hold true
for the 2016/17 growing season. The top
positions are occupied by the same lead-
ers in production, with a reaction showed
only by the pioneering Rio Grande do Sul
State (now ranking as third largest produc-
er, coming after Mato Grosso, in the Center-
West; and Paraná, in the South). There have
been changes in the central part of the pro-
ducing regions. There, the Western Bahia
region in theNortheast lost its sixthposition
toMinas Gerais, resulting fromthe effects of
the ad-
verse climate
Keepingthe
current
positions
conditions, as well as the other states of the
new agricultural frontier known by the ac-
ronym Matopiba, which includes the states
of Tocantins, in the North; Maranhão and
Piauí, in theNortheast.
Mato Grosso also endured losses in the
northern portion of the state in the 2015/16
growing season, but is by far the leading
producer in Brazil. And, in spite of the cau-
tion now surrounding the new crop, there
may be area increases again and recovery
of productivity. The second largest produc-
er, Paraná, should experience a small inver-
sion (1%) in soy planting, which was con-
quering space but is now losing ground to
corn. However, the Rural Economy Depart-
ment (Deral), a division of the Secretariat of
Agriculture and Food Supply, is projecting
higher production levels after the cropwas
adversely affected by bad weather
conditions. Stability, with
slight
growth
(1%), is ex-
p e c t e d
by the
rural ex-
tension
d e p a r t -
ment (Ema-
ter/RS), in Rio
Grande do Sul,
but, if historical av-
erages are taken into
account, maybe the
same productivity lev-
els and the production vol-
ume of the past crop are not achieved.
In the Center-West, the fourth and
fifth biggest national producers, Goiás
and Mato Grosso do Sul, which kept their
productive evolution during the 2015/16
growing season, could absorb areas for soy-
bean in the new cycle, according to an eval-
uationbyMarkets andCrops Consultancy in
late July 2016. The same could occur with
Minas Gerais and São Paulo, in the South-
east, on the grounds of the incentive repre-
sented by the good crop in the past growing
season. On the other hand, the most recent
regionwhere the crophas beenestablished,
in the North and Northeast (Matopiba) is
still suffering the adverse effects of the un-
favorable climate conditions that were even
worse in the past season.
Because of this, Bahia, where the crop is
growninthewesternportionofthestate,was
surpassedthisyearbyMinasGerais,whileTo-
cantins was outstripped by São Paulo and
SantaCatarina, with the latter surpassing the
state of Maranhão. This state in the North-
east, along with the neighboring Tocantins,
in theNorth, according to the aboveConsul-
tancy firm, could implement new soybean
growing areas, occupying pasturelands and
reallocated reserves. The same is supposed
to occur in the northeastern state of Pará,
which does not belong to Matopiba, and
still on a fledgling stage as far as soybean
crops go, but is making strides in sustain-
ability, according to entities of the sector.
For their part, the producers in Bahia, in light
of the losses they endured, are supposed to
refrain fromnewexpansions,while thegrow-
ers in the State of Piauí, are supposed to re-
duce their plantedareas for thesame reason.
The constant erratic climate conditions
in the fastest growing region over the recent
seasons, besides questions related to cred-
it lines, arebelieved to induce the farmers to
rethink their expansion projects at the mo-
ment, according to an opinion expressed
by an official from Celeres Consultancy, in
early August 2016. Anyway, the Consultan-
cywas anticipatingpossible recovery inpro-
ductivity, in light of an expectedmoremod-
erate behavior of the climate. As amatter of
fact, in early September, the Climate Predic-
tion Center observed that, contrary to what
occurred in the recent seasons, the 2016/17
growing season in Matopiba could take ad-
vantageoftheclimate,withnormalrainfalls,
brought about by theLaNiñaphenomenon.
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