Sílvio Ávila
Sector isbettingonacropofupwardsof100million
tonsof soybeaninthe2016/17growingseason, ifgood
weatherconditionsholduntil theendof theseason
Like an Olympic sport, the soybean
kernels in Brazil, a Country that occupies
a prominent position in the global oilseed
business, are progressing steadily and
confidently towards surmounting the 100
million-ton barrier in the 2016/17 growing
season. The target has been pursued since
2015, after successive expansions in plant-
ed area, but weather conditions have so
far been a major barrier. In 2016, with a
rather modest evolution in cultivation,
and possibly more favorable climate con-
ditions, the expectation is for the Country
to achieve this performance.
A survey by Reuters Agency, in early Sep-
tember 2016, which collected data from 12
consultancy companies and entities on the
newproductive season, pointed to a volume
of approximately 103 million tons (up 8%
from the previous crop). The same conclu-
sion was reached, in July, by the US Depart-
ment of Agriculture (USDA) on the Brazilian
production volume, while in August this pro-
jection fell to 101 million tons, with the im-
pactcomingfromthenowhighlyvaluedcorn
crops when it comes to defining the specific
areas for each individual summer crop. The
area occupied by soybean, according to this
survey,was estimated to rise1.3%.
“Planting intentions should contin-
ue on a rising trend, but at a slower pace
compared to recent seasons”, presumed
Thomé Luiz Freire Guth, analyst at the Na-
tional FoodSupply Agency (Conab), inmid-
September 2016, while the first official es-
timate of the new crop was scheduled for
early October. In his evaluation, the crop is
still attracting farmers, for such factors as
price and liquidity. Nonetheless, some as-
pects suggest a rather moderate impetus,
for reasons like the higher value of corn, a
Withno
limits
crop that competes with the summer soy-
bean crop; the downtrend in the quotes by
the Chicago Stock Exchange, with a bigger
crop in the United States and the chance
for China to reduce its soy imports.
The intention to exceed 100 million tons
in Brazil is viable, Thomé comments. “If
weather conditions continue favorable, it
will be possible even without area increas-
es”, he conceded. Within this context, he cit-
ed that indications in September pointed to
normal weather conditions, in general. Dur-
ing the current year, it is the La Niña phe-
nomenon that is likely to occur in the Wa-
ters of the Pacific Ocean, which, in a general
way, reverses theeffect of El Niño, present in
the previous season, with chances for high-
er precipitation levels in the North and less
rain in the South. Latest information, then
known, suggested moderation in its occur-
rence and no big consequences on agricul-
ture, benefiting the Brazilian target for 2016.
Planted area continues on a soaring
trend, but at a rather slowpace
18
Planted area continues on a soaring
trend, but at a rather slowpace
HISTÓRIARECENTE
Recent history
Números dos últimos cinco anos da soja noBrasil
Fonte:
Conab.
Safra
Área (ha)
Produção (t)
Produtividade (kg/ha)
2011/12
25.042,2
66.383,0
2.651
2012/13
27.736,1
81.499,4
2.938
2013/14
30.173,1
86.120,8
2.854
2014/15
32.092,9
96.228,0
2.998
2015/16
33.251,9
95.434,6
2.870
