Inor Ag. Assmann
Countryassumes itspositionasrelevantsupplierof
soybeantotheworld,andtheoilseedistheleading
nationalagriculturalproduceshippedabroad
Green plants and yellow kernels identi-
fy Brazil and its leading crop, soybean. It is
the unbeatable leader of Brazilian agribusi-
ness, responsible for 23% of the income
fromtheagricultural segment, and themost
representative item on the national agenda
of exports, not only of the segment, but also
in general, with 10.9% of the total, if only
the kernels are taken into consideration, or
14.6% when meal and oil are included (the
so called soy complex). The trend, accord-
ing to area specialists, is for this situation to
continue for years to come, with the nation
ranking asmajor exporter, besides pursuing
the position as biggest producer.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock
and Food Supply (Mapa), in mid-Septem-
ber 2016, released the information that the
Basic Production Value (BPV) of soybean for
2016 would amount to R$ 118.6 billion, rep-
resenting 23% of the total income derived
from the sector. The estimated amount
would represent a 3.8-percent rise over the
previous year. On the other hand, officials
from the Brazilian Confederation of Agri-
culture and Livestock (CNA), at that time,
were projecting R$ 126.9 billion for the year,
which would indicate 23.5% of the total,
down 2.1% from 2015, by virtue of plum-
metingprices andclimate relatedproblems.
For the upcoming decade, Mapa sourc-
es point to the continuity of the growth
rate, although at a slower pace compared
to the previous period. In their evaluation,
it will be the crop that will expand themost
in area over the decade (10 million hect-
ares in addition to the present 33 million
hectares), totaling 30.2%, or an average an-
nual rate of 2.7%, while over the past 10
years this rate reached 5.8%. On the other
hand, they mention the more conservative
Soyaccountsfor23%ofthe
incomefromagricultureand14,6%
oftheCountry’stotalexports
Arrow
for the future
position of the Brazilian Vegetable Oil In-
dustries Association (Abiove) technicians,
about 1%, “due to rising pressure against
advances into native areas”.
Nevertheless, as observed by the tech-
nical department of the official organ, the
trend is for bigger expansions of the crop
in pasturelands, besides occupying avail-
able lands and replacing other crops. The
new areas include the cerrado regions
identified as Matopiba (acronym with the
first letters of the states of Maranhão, To-
cantins, Piauí and Bahia), in the North-
east and North, in addition to anticipating
some migration movements to the north-
ern states of Pará and Rondônia.
Abiove officials insist on the need to
boost productivity, now at about 3 thou-
sand kilograms per hectare. Within this con-
text, projections by Mapa officials for the
next 10 years point to an increase of 35.1%
and30.2%inarea, not asmuchas in thepre-
vious decade (66%). The perspective is for a
crop of upwards of 100 million tons in the
2016/17 growing season, and 129 million
tons in the 2025/26 season. Under such cir-
cumstances, exports are supposed to soar
more (41%) than domestic consumption
(22.6%). The production of soybean meal is
supposed to go up 24.5%and oil, 23.4%.
For the next crop, although corn is now
more profitable than soybean, the latter
“will continue as the most important crop,
for its domestic and external liquidity”, says
Argemiro Luís Brum, professor of econom-
ics, analyst and agricultural consultant. He
also stresses the fact that Brazil, now the big
global supplier of the kernel (42.2% of total
global exports), thoughwith a smaller share
in the export of soyderivatives (22.8%of soy
meal and11.4%of oil). Furthermore, he em-
phasizes “the Country is on its way to con-
quering the position as biggest individual
producer of soybean over the next years”.
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